Could the Iranian Revolution Have Been Avoided?
ByToday is the 30th anniversary of the Iran Hostage Crisis, which could have been avoided, as illustrated below.
In 1951, Dr. Mohammed Mossadegh was elected Prime Minister of Iran, with his main campaign promise being the nationalization of the country’s oil fields, which were owned by British Petroleum. The bill would pass unanimously in the Iranian Parliament, which would change Iran’s path forever. BP, despite being offered a reasonable buyout, did not wish to relinquish the oil fields, so the British government placed an economic embargo on Iran. In addition, the CIA began to brainstorm ways in which to eliminate the democratically elected prime minister. Why would the CIA step in, you ask? Because Iran shared a long border with America’s Cold War nemesis, the Soviet Union, and Iran was the most powerful nation in the Middle East. What commenced was Operation AJAX, one of the CIA’s most successful covert operations, which would remove Mossadegh and replace him with the Shah of Iran.
Life Under the Shah

Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Shah of Iran
The Iranian Revolution

Mass Demonstration during the Revolution
Blowback
The CIA would coin the term “blowback” to describe the 1953 coup. Sure, Operation AJAX was a success, as Dr. Mossadegh was overthrown, and the US got to share in Iranian oil profits for the first time in history. However, the fundamentalist regime that rules Iran today, would not have had the popular support to overthrow a democratically elected government. As rapper Immortal Technique put it, “You f***** the Middle East and gave birth to a demon.” I suppose the CIA can take solace in the fact that Iran is not currently ruled by communists.
For more in depth information about modern Iranian history, take a look at All the Shah’s Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror
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Weren't the clerics as influential then in Dr. Mohammed Mossadegh's time? Do you think if the US did not plot against him, the ousted Prime Minister could have ably parried off the imam's political clout? Or perhaps the ascendancy of the clerics was brought about by the repressive Shah? Just a thought.
Good insight, Jan. You are actually correct on all accounts. The clerics were influential, for sure, and probably would have mobilized the masses against Dr. Mossadegh eventually, as he believed in a secular government, just as the Shah did. However, Mossadegh was democratically elected. While the people were forced to live under the Shah for 26 years, they could have eventually voted out Mossadegh if they didn't like his policies. Remember, even the decision to turn the country into an Islamic Republic was voted on. Also, the Ayatollah didn't rise to political prominence until 1963, when he opposed the Shah's pro-Western policies, and got arrested for his views. The clerics might have possibly eventually had a stronger role in Iranian politics, but had the transition been allowed to take place naturally, it probably would have been less revolutionary, and less violently anti-American.
But honestly, one cannot tell the future, so how can one tell an alternate past? ^_-